Ever wonder how much you can expect to win (or lose) over the long haul when playing video poker? If you’re serious about your game, understanding the concept of expected return is key.
What is Expected Return in Video Poker?
Expected Return (ER), also known as the payback percentage, is the average amount of money a player can expect to win back over the long term from a video poker game. It’s expressed as a percentage and reflects the machine’s theoretical return to the player (RTP).
In simpler terms, if you play a video poker machine with an expected return of 99%, you can expect to get back $99 for every $100 you wager – over a long period, that is. It’s not a guarantee of what will happen on any given day, but it gives you a good idea of the machine’s overall generosity.
Why It Matters: Knowing the expected return helps you make informed decisions about which games to play. Machines with higher expected returns offer better odds and more value for your money, increasing your chances of walking away a winner.
How Expected Return is Calculated
The expected return is calculated based on the paytable and the probabilities of hitting each possible hand. Here’s a step-by-step look at how it’s done:
1. Paytable Analysis
Each video poker game has a specific paytable that lists the payouts for different hands. To calculate the expected return, you start by looking at these payouts.
Example: For a “Jacks or Better” machine with a 9/6 paytable, the payouts might be as follows:
| Coins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Royal Flush | 250 | 500 | 750 | 1000 | 4000 |
| Straight Flush | 50 | 100 | 150 | 200 | 250 |
| Four-of-a-Kind | 25 | 50 | 75 | 100 | 125 |
| Full House | 9 | 18 | 27 | 36 | 45 |
| Flush | 6 | 12 | 18 | 24 | 30 |
| Straight | 4 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 20 |
| Three-of-a-Kind | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 |
| Two Pair | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Jacks of Better | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
2. Probability of Each Hand
Next, you need to know the probability of being dealt each hand. This involves a bit of math and understanding of card combinations, but don’t worry – the experts have done the heavy lifting. Here are the approximate probabilities for the same “Jacks or Better” game:
| Hand | Probability |
| Royal Flush | 0.000025 |
| Straight Flush | 0.000108 |
| Four of a Kind | 0.002364 |
| Full House | 0.011512 |
| Flush | 0.011149 |
| Straight | 0.011521 |
| Three of a Kind | 0.074449 |
| Two Pair | 0.129308 |
| Jacks or Better | 0.214585 |
3. Calculating the Expected Return
To find the expected return, you multiply the payout for each hand by its probability, then add up all these values.
Example Calculation:
- Royal Flush: 250 x 0.000025 = 0.00625
- Straight Flush: 50 x 0.000108 = 0.0054
- Four of a Kind: 25 x 0.002364 = 0.0591
- Full House: 9 x 0.011512 = 0.103608
- Flush: 6 x 0.011149 = 0.066894
- Straight: 4 x 0.011521 = 0.046084
- Three of a Kind: 3 x 0.074449 = 0.223347
- Two Pair: 2 x 0.129308 = 0.258616
- Jacks or Better: 1 x 0.214585 = 0.214585
Add these together to get the total expected return:
Total ER = 0.00625 + 0.0054 + 0.0591 + 0.103608 + 0.066894 + 0.046084 + 0.223347 + 0.258616 + 0.214585 = 0.984874 or 98.49%.
This means the machine has an expected return of 98.49%. Over time, for every $100 you wager, you can expect to get back about $98.49.
Why Expected Return Varies Between Games
Different video poker games and paytables offer different expected returns. Here’s why:
1. Payout Differences – The most obvious factor is the payouts for each hand. Games that offer higher payouts for common hands (like a pair of jacks or a flush) will generally have a higher expected return.
2. Game Variants – Variants like “Deuces Wild” or “Double Bonus Poker” have different rules and paytables, which affect the overall expected return. These games often have unique hands and higher payouts for certain combinations, which can boost the ER.
3. Player Strategy – Your skill and strategy also impact the expected return. Playing optimally – making the best possible decisions based on your hand and the game’s rules – ensures you get the maximum return possible. Deviating from optimal strategy can lower the ER.
How to Use Expected Return to Your Advantage
Understanding expected return is a game-changer. Here’s how to use it to maximize your play:
1. Choose Games with High ER – Look for machines with the highest expected return. Games like full pay “Jacks or Better” (99.54%) or “Deuces Wild” (up to 100.76%) offer some of the best returns. These machines give you the best chance to win over the long run.
2. Stick to Optimal Strategy – Each video poker game has an optimal strategy that maximizes the expected return. Learn these strategies and stick to them religiously. They’re your best bet for keeping the odds in your favor.
3. Compare Paytables – Before you start playing, compare the paytables of different machines. Even small differences in payouts can significantly impact the expected return. Choose the machine with the best paytable for the game you’re playing.
4. Manage Your Bankroll – Expected return gives you a long-term perspective, but short-term results can vary widely. Manage your bankroll carefully and be prepared for ups and downs. This approach helps you stay in the game longer and ride out the fluctuations.
Playing Smart with Expected Return
Understanding the concept of expected return transforms your video poker experience from random luck to informed strategy. By choosing games with high ER, sticking to optimal strategies, and managing your bankroll wisely, you can play smarter and enjoy better returns.
Got a favorite video poker game or a tip on maximizing expected return? Share it in the comments below! We love hearing about your casino insights and experiences.
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